NFL Betting Strategy & Tips for Smarter Wagers

Before we dive deep into statistical analysis, let’s go over each NFL bet and see how we can weave them into a winning NFL betting strategy.

NFL Moneyline Bets

NFL Moneyline bets are pretty simple: you pick which team you think will the game. You don’t have to worry about spreads or any other complicated stuff, as long as you can read sports odds, you’re good.

Let’s say the odds are like this:

• Baltimore Ravens (favorites): -150
• Jacksonville Jaguars (underdogs): +200

If you bet $100 on the Ravens at -150, it means you’d need to wager $150 to win $100. But since you’re only putting down $100, you’ll get a smaller payout if they win. So, if the Ravens pull off the win, you’d get back $66.67 in profit, plus your original $100, for a total of $166.67.

On the flip side, if you bet $100 on the Jaguars at +200 and they pull off the upset, you’d win $200, plus your $100 bet, for a total payout of $300.

If you bet on the underdog, you’ll be taking a greater risk but you’ll also have a chance to get a bigger payout.

NFL Point Spread Bets

NFL point spread bets are a bit more complicated: you’re not only predicting who’s gonna take the win, you’re also betting on the margin of victory. Sportsbook set a “spread” to even out the match a bit, so in our Ravens vs Jaguars game, the Jaguars would get an artificial handicap to give them a fighting chance.

Let’s say the spread looks like this:

• Baltimore Ravens: -6.5 (-110)
• Jacksonville Jaguars: +6.5 (-110)

Here’s what that means:

• Ravens -6.5: They need to win by 7 points or more for you to win the bet.
• Jaguars +6.5: They can lose by 6 points or fewer, or win outright, for you to win.

Now, let’s say you bet $100 on the Ravens at -6.5. The odds are -110, which is pretty standard for point spreads. If the Ravens win by 7 or more points, you’d win about $90.91 in profit, and get your $100 back, for a total payout of $190.91.

But if the Ravens only win by, say, 3 points, they don’t cover the spread, and you lose the bet. If you had bet on the Jaguars +6.5 instead, you’d win if they lost by 6 or fewer points, or if they upset the Ravens entirely.

Spread bets can turn a relatively “meh” game into an exciting nailbiter, so they’re one of my favorite bets.

NFL Totals (Over/Under) Bets

NFL Totals and NFL over/under bets are the same thing, people just use these terms interchangeably. This time, you’re not betting on who wins or loses the match, you’re predicting whether the total points scored by both teams will be over or under a number set by the sportsbook.

Let’s say the Over/Under for this Ravens-Jaguars game is set at 45.5 points:

• Over 45.5 (-110)
• Under 45.5 (-110)

If you’re predicting a high-scoring game (maybe the Ravens are missing a key defensive player), and both teams will combine for more than 45.5 points (so, 46 or more), you’d bet the Over. If you expect a defensive battle with fewer than 45.5 total points, you’d bet the Under (that’s what I’d do if Derrick Henry got injured or is in a bad streak).

Now, let’s say you bet $100 on the Over at -110 odds. If both teams combine to score 46 points or more, you’d win about $90.91 in profit, plus your $100 back, for a total payout of $190.91.

If the final score is, let’s say, Ravens 24 and Jaguars 20 (which adds up to 44 points), and you bet the Over, you’d lose. But if you’d bet the Under, you’d win the same $90.91 profit on your $100 bet.

Next time you see a dude celebrate every touchdown, you’ll know he has money on a totals bet.

NFL Parlay Bets

NFL parlay bets is where the crazy payouts are waiting, so you know it’s about to get risky. So, an NFL parlay bet rolls up multiple bets (or legs) into one single wager, but you have to get every individual bet right. If you miss one single bet/leg, then you lose the entire bet.

Let’s use our Ravens vs. Jaguars game and build a simple three-leg Parlay:

1. Ravens Moneyline (-150) — You’re betting the Ravens to win outright.
2. Over 45.5 total points (-110) — Betting on a high-scoring game.
3. Ravens -6.5 on the point spread (-110) — You think the Ravens will win by at least 7 points.

The reason why parlay payouts are so massive is because Parlay odds get multiplied together. In this case, the odds for your Parlay could look something like +600 (!!) after combining those three legs.

If you lay down a $100 bet, and all three of these legs hit, your payout would be $600 in profit, plus your original $100 back for a total payout of $700.

But if, for example, the Ravens win by only 3 points and don’t cover the spread, you lose the entire bet, even if the other two legs (Moneyline and Over) hit. Make no mistake, this is a high-risk, high-reward bet that can either pay out big time, or leave you hurting after the game.

NFL Prop Bets

NFL prop bets are pretty fun on their own, especially if you’re a big fan of a specific player. Me? I’d have Lamar Jackson on my team any day of the week, so let’s see what making an NFL prop bet on him would look like.

For this example, I’m gonna bet on Lamar Jackson, the Ravens’ quarterback, during the Ravens vs. Jaguars game. Prop bets aren’t about the game’s outcome; they’re about specific events or stats within the game. For Lamar, we could bet on something like Total Rushing Yards.

Let’s say the sportsbook sets the line at:

• Lamar Jackson Over 60.5 rushing yards (+115)
• Lamar Jackson Under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)

If you think Lamar is going to take off running a lot, you’d bet the Over 60.5 rushing yards.

If you put down a $100 bet on the Over at -115 odds, and Lamar rushes for 61 yards or more, you’d win about $86.96 in profit, plus your original $100, for a total payout of $186.96.

But if he gets held to 60 rushing yards or fewer, you lose the bet. This is when it pays to have your player performance statistics and travel schedule reports on-point. If you’re gonna bet on a player, you gotta make sure he’s on top conditions.

NFL Future Bets

NFL Future bets is for stuff that might happen way down the road, like who’s gonna win the 2024 Super Bowl. Let’s say I felt confident about the Baltimore Ravens taking the championship this season. The sportsbook might have the Ravens at +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl.

You get these crazy odds (especially early in the season) because it’s so difficult to predict what’s gonna happen all the way back then.

Now, if you put down a $100 bet at +1200, and the Ravens do go all the way and win, you’d score $1,200 in profit, plus your original $100, for a total payout of $1,300. That’s insane!

You’re locked in your bet months before the big game even comes up, but the payout can be juicy, if lady luck is on your side for the season. So, buy that confetti if your team gets to the finals, but also pack a barf bag.

Now we that got all our tools to build a winning NFL Betting strategy, let’s go deep into the strategy behind smart bets.

Alright, moment of truth: let’s see how we can build a winning NFL betting strategy. I’ll call it the 24-25 move, because I’ll give you the blueprints for a winning strategy that you can further refine. I’ll tell you how to do that too.

I’ll list some of the more specific stuff you should look at to adapt this strategy to your betting style and preferences. It goes a bit deeper than your typical NFL Betting Advice.

Analyze Team Performance

Every team out there has a history of how they perform against the spread. You’ll find some teams consistently covering the spreads, while others fall short. The logic is clear: the teams that cover the spreads do it because of overall quality and the team’s condition prior to the game. This is where it gets interesting.

First, analyze team’s traveling schedule

Team’s Traveling Schedule

It doesn’t matter if you’re betting on the NBA or soccer. If a team has to go through an intense traveling schedule, their performance will drop. Look at how the team arrives, and the three matches prior to that, and quickly google the distances they’ve had to travel in a short period of time. If they’ve been traveling a lot, then you need to consider that as an invisible handicap.

This takes me to the next two factors: home field advantage and historic matchups

Home Field Advantage

Teams playing at home often have an edge, everyone knows this. But what about the weather? After you finish checking the traveling schedule, is this their second game in a row playing home? If so, not only are they rested, they also have a home field advantage. This is massive for the team, and definitely improves their odds.

Historic Matchups

Some teams just get dominated by others, try as they might. Usually there’s some sort of player or formation that nullifies star players and keeps their teams consistently losing against a specific team. You need to be aware of this before you bet.

Injury Reports

This is an NFL betting strategy fundamental that is obvious, to the point of being looked over. I love hanging out with my buddies for some Sunday football, but man it’s sad to see them put money on the Cowboys and wonder what happened to CeeDee Lamb. The guy’s a fighter, but even he needs to take a day off for a head injury.

Always make sure that key players are available before locking in on a bet.

Some Teams are Naturally Offensive (Or Defensive)

Look, I don’t know why, but some teams seem to have an offensive coach that is sleeping on the wheel. Others have a naturally strong defensive lineup that carries them through tight wins. Either way, you want to be aware of teams that are naturally good at offense or defense for your Totals bets.

If you got two very offensive teams, you got reasons to bet Over the line in a Totals bet. You could even put together a parlay a totals leg.

What is the best NFL betting strategy?

There isn’t a one-size-fits-all strategy. The 24-25 move strategy in this article has yielded great results, but you can further optimize it with the factors we’ve outlined.

When should I bet on NFL games?

The best time to bet on NFL games often depends on your strategy. For favorites, early-week betting usually provides better lines, while underdog bets may offer value later in the week.

Is betting on the underdog profitable in the long run?

Betting on underdogs can be profitable if you do your research and find good value. Close matchups and division rivalries often present strong opportunities for underdog bets.

How does weather affect NFL betting?

Weather plays a crucial role, especially in total points bets. Rain, snow, and strong winds often lead to lower-scoring games, making the under a good option.

How do line movements impact NFL bets?

Line movement occurs when sportsbooks adjust the odds based on betting activity. Keeping track of line movements can help you get better value on bets, especially if you bet early before the public influences the line.