Basketball Spread Betting Strategies You Need

I’m gonna assume you’re new to basketball spread betting, so allow me to briefly explain what we’re doing here. Spread bets basically assign a handicap to the team that’s most likely to win the game, and a head start to the underdog to even the playing field and keep the action interesting.

Now, you don’t just pick the favorite, you pick who you think will “cover the spread”, meaning which team will either win by more than the spread (for favorites) or lose by less than the spread (for underdogs).

So, how would a spread look like for the favorite and underdog? Something like this:

• Favorites: Indicated by a negative number (e.g., -5.5), means they have to win by more than the spread.
• Underdogs: Indicated by a positive number (e.g., +5.5), meaning they can lose by less than the spread (or just win).

On some rare occasions, the game lands exactly on the spread, which is known as a “push”. When that happens, you get your money back, no profit no loss.

What’s great about it is that you can grab a very lopsided game you’d probably skip out on (unless you’re a fan of either team) and turn it into a thrilling nailbiter you’ll probably watch till the end. It also opens up a world of betting options for people that love the game and can consistently make good predictions.

Don’t worry, I’ll also teach you how you can make smart bets and master NBA spread betting too. For now, let’s look at a real-world example of how basketball spread betting works.

Alright, let’s imagine the Jalen’s Knicks are playing the Raptors, so the sportsbook sets the point spread at Knicks -5.5 and Raptors +5.5. This means that- If you bet on the Knicks, they have to win by at least 6 points for your bet to win. It’s clear that the Knicks are the favorites so they get the handicap.

On the other hand, if you bet on the Raptors, they can either win the game outright or lose by 5 points or less, and you’d still win your bet.
Let’s say the odds for both bets are -110 (typical for spread bets). You decide to lay down $100 on the Knicks to cover the spread. If they win by 6 or more points, you’d win roughly $90.91 (plus your original $100 back). If they win by 5 or less, or lose the game, you lose your bet.
You can already see some of the benefits and cons I was talking about earlier:

Pros of Point Spread Betting:

– More even playing field: The spread balances the scales, so you’re not just betting on who wins but by how much. Even if a team is a big favorite, the bet stays interesting.
– Bigger excitement: Close games get more thrilling because even a small basket can make or break your bet.

Cons of Point Spread Betting:

– Riskier for beginners: You might think, “Oh, the Knicks will crush the Raptors,” but they could still win by 4 or 5 points, and you lose. It’s not always about who’s better, but how the game plays out.
– More variables: Just like a last-second play can get you the greens, it can also bury you and your bet.

I’ve always thought of spread betting and moneyline bets as ideal entry-level bets that newbies can have fun with, with Basketball spread betting firmly sitting at the beginner-intermediate level. But even I as a veteran NBA gambler, I love to make them part of my parlays or outright bet on the spread for underrated matches with really good odds.

So, you’re probably wondering now: how can I tell good odds from bad odds? How can I make money with Basketball spread betting? Glad you asked, let me explain.

At the heart of it all, if you want to make money with Basketball spread betting, you need to:

• Distinguish good odds from bad odds
• Have a system that pushes you to make good predictions

What you need is an NBA betting strategy

Have an NBA Betting Strategy

Having an NBA betting strategy will not only help you with Basketball spread betting, it’ll also help you put together good parlays for fat paydays and lots of data-driven decisions that will get you a positive betting record.

Our NBA betting strategy covers:

Travel Schedules and Their Impact on Performance

Favorites that have had to travel tremendous distances in short periods of time see a performance dip past the second quarter. This is something we’ve touched on our strategy guide.

Home Court Advantage

Playing at home can be a significant factor to consider, but it won’t always justify a significant point spread. We talk about how important it is to treat as a piece and not the key to the puzzle.

Injury Monitoring

Key offensive or defensive players that suffer an injury, other health issues, or get benched due to questionable coaching decisions are also part of any serious bettor decision-making process.

Line Movements and Betting Trends

Understanding why the line moves will tip you off to other major factors that could have a big say on the final result, and whether a spread will get covered or not.

Key Player Stats

Understanding what player statistics matter, and which are overkill is also important, and we discuss that on our NBA betting guides.

Match History

Past matches between teams that kept their lineups is also important, but we also look at how newly incorporated players have performed against this week’s rival. Understanding whether to expect a strong offense or a strong defense (or both) will help you predict who gets to cover the spread this time.

There’s a bunch of other factors as well as our own NBA betting strategy you can grab and adapt to your needs, so once you’re done here, check out that guide.

Once you start getting into Basketball spreading, you’ll notice that each win feeds that thrill and expands your bankroll for the week, but what happens when you go in a slump? It happens to the best of us, because Basketball is inherently a streaky game. It’s momentum-based, and a key turnover can ruin a spread that was covered right until the last minute of the game.

You have to be ready to accept those losses and move on. You also need to resist the urge to bet on anything again just to make you whole. All your bets need to be vetted by your strategy and system, and you need to be disciplined about it.

Divide your bankroll into betting units, with each unit taking no more than 1-2% of your whole bankroll. Never commit too many of your units into a single bet, hedge the risks and make several smart bets instead of 1-2 impulsive parlays. You’ll thank me later.

We have a multitude of resources for other types of NBA bets and sports betting in general here on our site, so be sure to check them out and keep feeding that brain of yours with data-driven knowledge and good decision making. If you do that, you’ll be fine!

What does “covering the spread” mean in basketball betting?

Covering the spread means that the team you bet on either won by more than the spread (for favorites) or lost by fewer than the spread (for underdogs).

Can I bet on a team to lose with spread betting?

Yes, betting on the underdog with a positive spread allows you to win even if that team loses. If they lose by fewer points than the spread, you’re still getting the green!

How does overtime affect spread betting?

Overtime is included in most basketball spread bets. If the game goes into overtime, the final result, including the overtime points, will determine whether the spread is covered.

What happens if the game ends exactly on the spread?

If the game ends exactly on the spread, it’s called a “push.” In this case, the bet is void, and you’ll receive your original stake back. No profit, but no loss either.